Color Depression

Capitalism without depression is not true capitalism. Through out history many depressions have occurred correcting mistakes and Mal investments. The most notable in recent history is the great depression of the 1930’s. During that period, there wasn’t social security, food stamps, unemployment benefits or any government assistance. For anybody that has looked at the history of the United States, I am pretty sure you are familiar with soup kitchens with long lines, bank failures, foreclosure, suicides, divorce, and poverty. The Roosevelt Administration had the urge to do something just like the current governments mindset, thinking it will make sure we don’t repeat the 1930’s. The urge to do something actually prolongs a depression that could end a lot quicker if the free market was allowed to do its job without government meddling.


You see the difference between today’s depression and the 1930’s is that today we live in color. After the biggest bubble in recorded history and 80 years later we have the government’s worst nightmare. The reason its hard to swallow the D word is because you don’t see men and women lining up in the soup kitchen. Instead Uncle Sam is sending food stamps to 37 million people (equal to the population of Spain). What’s the unemployed doing, you might be wondering? Well Uncle Sam is extending unemployment benefit, discouraging long lines in search of work. Oh it’s a 21st century depression, discouraged workers might be on the web, most probably somewhere that ends with .gov looking for a stimulated job. So why go around when you can sit on your behind in front of a screen and look for a job? On top unemployment benefit is extended, how sweet is uncle Sam? I bet sweeter than sugar. I highly doubt that one could’ve done that in the 30’s. Dear reader I hope that you aren’t being deceived by the colorful depression and most of all you aren't tempted to be bribed by our dear leaders that seem to know everything.


It’s a silent depression that is destroying wealth, correcting the bubble era mentality (house prices will go up forever), fixing Mal investments and then creating a new economy. Without this process of deleveraging and deflation bust, forget about recession being over. Ah there is a dedicated team of doctors in Washington D.C that are handing out pain killers (denominated in dollars) to any patient that was dumb enough to almost bring civilization down.You might be familiar with few patients Fannie and Freddie, AIG, GM, and major banks were/are receiving pain killers in trillions funded by you and me, instead of letting them die, so new private players can enter the game. Our Japanese friends responded the same way 20 years ago, when their bubble bursted. If you have bought real estate in Tokyo or stocks in the Nikkei index (equivalent to Dow Jones) since 1989 and held till now, you haven't made a dime, zero, Nada! Only idiots bought Japanese investment for couple decades. I could have been one fool sucked into suckers game, fortunately i wasn't born till late 89'. See the Japanese maestros decided to stimulate a dead economy. So they handed out pain killers (denominated in Yen) to zombie corps, banks, and anyone on the street that wanted to get high like the golden days. What did the maestros get back in return? Nada, they can't even whisper to western ears, at least to say hey, Stupid! We tried to spend our way out of a depression for 20 years. It doesn't work


I hope you are enjoying a colorful depression with that 60 inch HD plasma, maybe you are a facebook junkie! Or maybe you are one of the many millions expecting change from a colored person? I personally said, Thank You, keep the change. Dear reader Man cant fight nature, what ought to happen must happen, in our case private debt must be paid, from a consumer society to being productive one, From not saving aluminum foil to saving at least 10% of our income. This is indeed happening now, its a period of adjustment, therefore a depression, a colorful one! Don't be fooled with a government that is trying to convince us in order to sober up an alcoholic, it’s a great idea to hook em’ up with cocaine.

Ground Zero

How can you tell if the economy is recovering? That ain't really hard to figure out dear reader! Take a look at the following chart.

Micky D's is where you find the cheapest food on the planet. As the crisis erupted many luxurious restaurants lost customers to mighty Micky D. This led to a surge in McDonald stock to rise, which meant consumers were cautious about their money. See the chart above has been on upward trend ever since 2007. If the share price keeps rising or stays where it is and crank out dividends, even when the overall market is deteriorating it is telling us that the economy is still crumbling as consumers consume the dollar menu and cut back on spending.

There are several ways to find out if the economy is making a comeback. When Japan Inc. fell into a depression some 20 years ago its central bank cut interest rates to zero! Yes, that is a zero, money was free. It still is free, as the central bank keeps fighting a losing battle. You probably have heard the term carry trade, it became so popular when Japanese wives stopped working and started making a killing by borrowing the local currency (Yen) close to 0% interest rate and invest it somewhere that earned them a nice yield. That party along with global boom music ended in 2007. I don't think I need to tell you what happened in 2007, but something neither the Japanese wives nor the crowd expected happened. The world crumbled to ground zero by introducing zero interest rate policy aka (ZIRP). I wonder what the Japanese wives are doing these days. Hmmm... who cares!

The Federal Reserve of the United States adapted the ZIRP policy followed by Bank of England and many other central banks around the globe to pump liquidity. So far the only central bank that has raised interest rates aggressively among the G-20 is Australia. Thanks to the middle kingdom's (China) appetite for natural resources Australia's economy was on fire. In order to cool it down the central bank raised its interest rate to 4.5% recently being the highest in the industrialized nations. Just like Japan responded by cutting rates to fight deflation in the late 80's till today, the Federal Reserve of the U.S led by Ben Bernanke responded in the same manner, fearing a depression, by cutting rates close to zero. After the bubble burst in 2007 deflation became the threat and paralyzed the system by cutting off credit. Therefore the fed cut rates to make sure credit was flowing so that the world economy wouldn't face a catastrophic doom. So if the Feds did cut rates as the economy soured, what do you think they ought to do when it is sweet? Untill then the brain washers, the masters, economists, Harvard professors, Timothy Giethner, Larry Summers and so on can try to make us feel better with their cheap talk.

Regards,

Eskinder Haile