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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Markets, Geo-politics Crisis, & Women



Why are we flirting with markets, politics, and women? We barely slept and we probably don't have any idea about women. But we do think we have found something in common in between Markets, Politics, And Women. More on that below, lets first check the markets.

Globally markets are flying high, with few exceptions like China. The Shanghai index has been on downward trend lately, maybe that's why we are suspicious of the middle kingdom. Elsewhere markets seem to be getting high, not because there is a real recovery in the economic front, but there seems to be a heroin dealer out of Washington D.C. It ain't the guy that promised you change, this dealer is bold, seems smart, like a geek you know, at least we thought so. His name is Ben Bernanke chairman of the the most powerful institution on planet earth, the Federal Reserve. He is in charge of our money the mighty dollar, that's the cheap heroin he supplies to the connected few. Since the financial crisis erupted he has been printing, printing, printing dollars debasing the currency calling it quantitative easing. Why is he doing such a foolish thing? Well a lot of dollars have been destroyed by bank failures, foreclosures, bankruptcies, unemployment, and people are saving for a rainy day. Meaning when people stop spending for whatever reason money circulates at a slow pace, its a threat to the system the authorities claim. We try to remind them its capitalism as if they would listen to us, creative destruction we say, they tend to like the creative part of capitalism but not the destruction. Good luck to them, Mr. Market is doing its job flooding us with foreclosures, firing excess labor, restructuring the economy and the feds are fighting it. Someone has to benefit from the money printing though, off course the elites on wall street are still paying bonus in billions while main street is on food stamps. Trouble is Mr.Bernanke has no interest in the common man, he careless if your grocery bill is going up or if it is getting harder to fill up your gas tank. What he do care is about the bankers safety, see back in 1913 the federal reserve system came into existence with a sole purpose to save banks no matter what. Its a private corporation owned by few thugs that you will never see. We suspect few banks own some shares, just in case your still wondering why they saved wall street but not you, we are giving you a hint, re read the last sentence.

On the political front we aren't seeing much difference nor action. Bribes seem to be normal like food stamps and unemployment checks so that the mass can stay happy with no thoughts of revolution on mind. On the other side of the planet some governments are in turmoil. We aren't surprised by the fact its happening, as we will explain why. But we thought the ignition to the revolt in the middle east would be lower oil prices, rather than Ben Bernanke. So we procrastinated waiting for the down cycle in oil prices to begin so we can warn you about the upcoming/ongoing Geo-politics crisis. Our expectation was as the baby boomers some 50 million strong heads welcome their golden days, the ripple effect of their retirement was to be felt in the economy. One key area we suspect is oil, as these inhabitants take a break from 9-5 hustle, demand for oil should go down. So we previously thought lower oil prices coupled with weak global economy would be the ignition for a revolution in the middle east. Instead Mr Ben Bernanke could be the one that sparked the Tunisian and Egyptian revolution. See many emerging economies have their currency tied to the dollar, so when Ben fires the printing press and devalues king dollar, these linked currencies react without market forces and create havoc for local economies. Those fresh dollars end up in the hands of the connected few whose goal is more profit. Lately the smart money has been flowing to commodities and precious metals. End result of Ben print policy has led to global food inflation to accelerate to 25% year-on-year basis by the end of 2010. Previously we have mentioned how developing nation citizens commit half of their income for their stomach. Off course they are going to be angry and revolt from the dumb policy of the federal reserve. To quote directly from a book we read few years ago;

" We tend to see alternating periods of 16 to 18 years when the general trends are first favorable and then unfavorable. We experienced a favorable cycle from 1983 through 2000. The Unfavorable cycle began in 2001 and will continue into 2018-2019. We expect world events and terrorism to get worse, not better. We expect the commodity bubble to first create higher tensions in the middle east, and then its collapse to create greater problems for North America and Europe."

That view incorporated with our firms view of lower oil prices in the near future, we as well expect more chaos, wars, collapse of governments in the middle east. Other countries like China & India might fight for resources, Mexico vs. Cartels, Iran confronting Israel, North Korea collapsing, and historians fighting for more ink. We wont  be surprised if there is a revolution here in America.
 

Are you still with us? Great, if you got to this point, you are either really interested, or just waiting to hear what we have to say about women. We seem to think of women as politicians, they like to talk a lot, and at times they are complicated as the markets. Why are we rumbling about women? Lately we have been entertaining our brain about a women we met in our dream. It was a quiet place just us and her, having a great conversation, that we fell for her instantly not just because of her looks but the beautiful mind she was equipped with as well. If a chemist was around he would conclude a great Ionic bond. All of a sudden this women disappeares from our view, leaving us with suspense. To this day it seems as if it was real, but it was just a dream, because if it was real, the chemist would be correct. Like Ionic bonds would attract to each other, this women would sacrifice anything and put the effort to form a bond. As far as we can remember in our dream she left us wondering, once we woke up, we were mad. We couldn't understand why dream women would promise us the world, and leave us? If she was running for election, no one would vote for her. She seemed too smart to be a politician anyways. If she truly meant what she said in our mini conversation, why act otherwise? Also we had hard time figuring her out, it was as if we were forced to comprehend those complex securities wall street was bundling up and selling to dumb investors that almost brought civilization to its knees. Maybe her sophistication is whats driving us nuts, because we make our daily bread by simplifying sophistication in the market place. But we can't do that to a women or can we? We don't know, no expertise when it comes to romance. Our mind is always following the smart money, So here is a question to the gentlemen, pimps, and the players, we figure they would have a P.H.D in this matter. If this was indeed real should we follow up with this women or forget and move on?

5 comments:

  1. Nice. Question on the last part: is it influenced by real life situations or just hypothetical?

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  2. What does the market have to do with the writer's fantasy relationship? I'm confused.

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  3. Move on ! If Michael Bloomberg was not laid off from the company he loved working for, for 15 years, he wouldn't have achieved greatness.

    ReplyDelete